Txawm hais tias nyob rau hauv ib nrab xyoo ntawm 2021, qee lub tuam txhab tsheb tau taw qhia tias qhov teeb meem tsis txaus ntawm lub nti hauv 2022 yuav raug txhim kho, tab sis OEMs tau nce kev yuav khoom thiab kev ua si kev xav nrog ib leeg, ua ke nrog cov khoom lag luam ntawm cov tsheb loj-qib chip tsim cov lag luam tseem nyob rau theem ntawm kev nthuav dav cov peev txheej, thiab kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb tam sim no tseem cuam tshuam loj heev los ntawm qhov tsis muaj cov tub ntxhais kawm.
Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, nrog rau kev hloov pauv sai ntawm kev lag luam tsheb mus rau kev siv hluav taws xob thiab kev txawj ntse, cov saw hlau ntawm cov khoom siv chips tseem yuav raug hloov pauv loj heev.
1. Qhov mob ntawm MCU nyob rau hauv qhov tsis muaj qhov tseem ceeb
Tam sim no saib rov qab ntawm qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov cores uas tau pib thaum kawg ntawm 2020, qhov tshwm sim yog qhov tsis txaus ntseeg yog qhov laj thawj tseem ceeb ntawm qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau ntawm cov khoom siv tsheb. Txawm hais tias qhov kev soj ntsuam ntxhib ntawm daim ntawv thov qauv ntawm MCU thoob ntiaj teb (microcontroller) chips qhia tau hais tias txij xyoo 2019 txog 2020, kev faib ntawm MCUs hauv kev siv hluav taws xob hauv tsheb yuav tuav 33% ntawm kev lag luam hauv qab, tab sis piv nrog cov chaw taws teeb hauv online Raws li deb li cov neeg tsim khoom lag luam muaj kev txhawj xeeb, chip foundries thiab ntim thiab kev soj ntsuam cov tuam txhab muaj teeb meem loj.
Chip manufacturing nroj tsuag teej tug mus rau lub zog-industries industries yuav raug kev txom nyem los ntawm loj manpower shortage thiab tsis muaj peev xwm tig mus rau hauv 2020. Tom qab lub upstream nti tsim tau hloov mus rau hauv cov kev xav tau ntawm cov tuam txhab tsheb, nws tsis muaj peev xwm ua tiav lub sij hawm tsim khoom, ua rau nws nyuaj rau cov chips xa mus rau tag nrho cov peev xwm. Nyob rau hauv tes ntawm lub Hoobkas tsheb, qhov teeb meem ntawm lub tsheb tsis txaus muaj peev xwm tshwm sim.
Thaum lub Yim Hli xyoo tas los, STMicroelectronics 'Muar cog hauv Muar, Malaysia raug yuam kom kaw qee lub tsev haujlwm vim muaj kev cuam tshuam ntawm tus kabmob tshiab, thiab kev kaw ncaj qha ua rau cov khoom siv chips rau Bosch ESP / IPB, VCU, TCU thiab lwm lub tshuab nyob rau hauv lub xeev ntawm kev cuam tshuam rau lub sijhawm ntev.
Tsis tas li ntawd, xyoo 2021, nrog rau kev puas tsuaj ntuj tsim xws li av qeeg thiab hluav taws kub kuj yuav ua rau qee cov tuam txhab tsim khoom tsis tuaj yeem tsim tau rau lub sijhawm luv. Thaum Lub Ob Hlis Ntuj xyoo tas los, av qeeg ua rau muaj kev puas tsuaj loj rau Nyiv lub Renesas Electronics, yog ib lub ntiaj teb cov khoom siv nti loj.
Kev txiav txim siab tsis ncaj ncees ntawm qhov kev thov rau hauv tsheb chips los ntawm cov tuam txhab tsheb, ua ke nrog qhov tseeb tias cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tau hloov lub peev xwm ntawm cov khoom siv hauv tsheb mus rau hauv cov neeg siv khoom siv txhawm rau lav cov nqi ntawm cov ntaub ntawv, tau ua rau MCU thiab CIS uas muaj qhov sib tshooj siab tshaj plaws ntawm cov tsheb chips thiab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tseem ceeb. (CMOS duab sensor) yog qhov tsis txaus.
Los ntawm qhov kev pom, muaj tsawg kawg yog 40 yam ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob ib txwm siv, thiab tag nrho cov tsheb kauj vab siv yog 500-600, uas feem ntau suav nrog MCU, fais fab semiconductors (IGBT, MOSFET, thiab lwm yam), sensors thiab ntau yam khoom siv analog. Autonomous tsheb kuj A series ntawm cov khoom xws li ADAS auxiliary chips, CIS, AI processors, lidars, millimeter-wave radars thiab MEMS yuav siv.
Raws li tus naj npawb ntawm cov tsheb xav tau, qhov cuam tshuam tshaj plaws hauv qhov teeb meem tseem ceeb tsis txaus yog tias lub tsheb ib txwm xav tau ntau dua 70 MCU chips, thiab lub tsheb MCU yog ESP (Electronic Stability Program System) thiab ECU (Cov khoom tseem ceeb ntawm lub tsheb loj tswj nti). Ua qhov laj thawj tseem ceeb ntawm qhov poob ntawm Haval H6 tau muab los ntawm Great Wall ntau zaus txij li xyoo tas los ua piv txwv, Great Wall tau hais tias qhov kev muag khoom loj ntawm H6 poob rau ntau lub hlis yog vim qhov tsis txaus ntawm Bosch ESP nws siv. Yav dhau los nrov Euler Black Cat thiab White Cat kuj tau tshaj tawm kev ncua ib ntus ntawm kev tsim khoom hauv lub Peb Hlis xyoo no vim muaj teeb meem xws li ESP muab txiav thiab nti nqi nce.
Embarrassingly, txawm hais tias nws pib chip factories tab tom tsim thiab ua kom cov kab tshiab wafer ntau lawm hauv 2021, thiab sim hloov cov txheej txheem ntawm nws pib chips mus rau cov qub ntau lawm kab thiab 12-nti tshiab cov kab ntau lawm yav tom ntej, txhawm rau ua kom muaj peev xwm ntau lawm thiab nce kev lag luam ntawm nplai, Txawm li cas los xij, lub voj voog xa khoom ntawm cov khoom siv semiconductor feem ntau yog ntau tshaj li ib nrab xyoo. Tsis tas li ntawd, nws yuav siv sij hawm ntev rau kev hloov kho cov kab ntau lawm, kev txheeb xyuas cov khoom thiab kev txhim kho kev tsim khoom, uas ua rau lub peev xwm tsim tawm tshiab yuav muaj txiaj ntsig zoo rau xyoo 2023-2024. .
Nws yog ib qho tsim nyog hais tias txawm hais tias lub siab tau ua rau lub sijhawm ntev, cov tuam txhab tsheb tseem muaj kev cia siab rau kev ua lag luam. Thiab lub peev xwm tsim tawm tshiab yog destined los daws qhov teeb meem loj tshaj plaws ntawm kev tsim cov peev txheej tam sim no yav tom ntej.
2. Kev sib ntaus sib tua tshiab nyob rau hauv hluav taws xob txawj ntse
Txawm li cas los xij, rau kev lag luam tsheb, kev daws teeb meem ntawm cov teeb meem nti tam sim no tsuas yog daws qhov kev xav tau ceev ntawm cov khoom lag luam tam sim no thiab xav tau asymmetry. Nyob rau hauv lub ntsej muag ntawm lub transformation ntawm hluav taws xob thiab ntse industries, lub mov siab ntawm automotive chips yuav tsuas nce exponentially yav tom ntej.
Nrog rau kev xav tau ntau ntxiv rau lub tsheb sib xyaw tswj cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, thiab lub sijhawm ntawm FOTA hloov kho thiab tsis siv neeg tsav tsheb, tus naj npawb ntawm cov chips rau lub zog tshiab tsheb tau hloov kho los ntawm 500-600 hauv lub sijhawm ntawm cov tsheb roj mus rau 1,000 txog 1,200. Tus naj npawb ntawm hom kuj tau nce los ntawm 40 mus rau 150.
Qee cov kws tshaj lij hauv kev lag luam tsheb tau hais tias nyob rau hauv lub tshav pob ntawm high-end ntse hluav taws xob tsheb yav tom ntej, tus naj npawb ntawm ib lub tsheb chips yuav nce ntau zaus mus rau ntau dua 3,000 daim, thiab qhov feem ntawm automotive semiconductors nyob rau hauv cov khoom nqi ntawm tag nrho lub tsheb yuav nce los ntawm 4% nyob rau hauv 2019 mus rau 12% nyob rau hauv 2025. Qhov no tsuas yog 20%. hais tias nyob rau hauv lub era ntawm hluav taws xob txawj ntse, qhov kev thov rau chips rau tsheb yog nce, tab sis nws kuj qhia tau hais tias tus ceev ceev nyob rau hauv lub technical nyuaj nyuaj thiab nqi ntawm chips yuav tsum tau rau tsheb.
Tsis zoo li cov OEMs ib txwm muaj, qhov twg 70% ntawm cov chips rau roj tsheb yog 40-45nm thiab 25% yog cov chips qis tshaj 45nm, qhov feem pua ntawm cov chips hauv 40-45nm txheej txheem rau cov tsheb loj thiab high-end hluav taws xob tsheb hauv khw tau poob mus rau 25%. 45%, thaum qhov kev faib ua feem ntawm chips saum 45nm txheej txheem tsuas yog 5%. Los ntawm ib qho kev pom zoo, kev paub tab cov txheej txheem high-end chips hauv qab 40nm thiab ntau dua 10nm thiab 7nm txheej txheem chips yog undoubtedly tshiab kev sib tw cheeb tsam nyob rau hauv lub tshiab era ntawm kev lag luam automotive.
Raws li kev tshawb fawb qhia tawm los ntawm Hushan Capital hauv 2019, qhov feem pua ntawm cov hluav taws xob semiconductors hauv tag nrho lub tsheb tau nce sai ntawm 21% nyob rau hauv lub sijhawm ntawm cov tsheb roj mus txog 55%, thaum MCU chips tau poob los ntawm 23% mus rau 11%.
Txawm li cas los xij, lub peev xwm nthuav dav nthuav tawm los ntawm ntau lub tuam txhab tseem yog feem ntau txwv rau cov tsoos MCU chips tam sim no lub luag haujlwm rau lub cav / chassis / lub cev tswj.
Rau cov tsheb ntse hluav taws xob, AI chips lub luag haujlwm rau kev tsav tsheb tsis muaj kev xav thiab fusion; fais fab modules xws li IGBT (insulated rooj vag dual transistor) lub luag hauj lwm rau lub hwj chim hloov dua siab tshiab; sensor chips rau autonomous tsav tsheb radar saib xyuas tau zoo heev xav tau. Nws feem ntau yuav dhau los ua qhov tshiab ntawm "tsis muaj qhov tseem ceeb" cov teeb meem uas cov tuam txhab tsheb yuav ntsib nyob rau theem tom ntej.
Txawm li cas los xij, nyob rau theem tshiab, dab tsi cuam tshuam cov tuam txhab tsheb yuav tsis yog qhov teeb meem muaj peev xwm cuam tshuam los ntawm cov khoom sab nraud, tab sis "cuck caj dab" ntawm cov nti txwv los ntawm kev sab nraud.
Ua raws li qhov kev thov rau AI chips coj los ntawm kev txawj ntse ua piv txwv, kev suav ntim ntawm kev tsav tsheb tsis raug cai tau mus txog ob tus lej TOPS (trillion ua haujlwm ib thib ob) qib, thiab kev suav lub zog ntawm cov tsheb ib txwm muaj MCUs tsis tuaj yeem ua tau raws li kev xav tau ntawm kev siv tsheb. AI chips xws li GPUs, FPGAs, thiab ASICs tau nkag mus rau hauv kev lag luam tsheb.
Hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm xyoo tas los, Horizon tau tshaj tawm tias nws cov khoom lag luam thib peb-qib tsheb, Journey 5 series chips, tau raug tso tawm. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv raug cai, Journey 5 series chips muaj kev suav lub zog ntawm 96TOPS, lub zog siv ntawm 20W, thiab kev siv hluav taws xob sib piv ntawm 4.8TOPS / W. . Piv nrog rau 16nm txheej txheem thev naus laus zis ntawm FSD (tag nrho kev tsav tsheb muaj nuj nqi) nti tso tawm los ntawm Tesla xyoo 2019, qhov tsis muaj ib lub nti nrog lub tshuab xam zauv ntawm 72TOPS, lub zog noj ntawm 36W thiab lub zog ua haujlwm piv ntawm 2TOPS / W tau txhim kho zoo heev. Qhov kev ua tiav no kuj tau txais kev pom zoo thiab kev koom tes ntawm ntau lub tuam txhab tsheb suav nrog SAIC, BYD, Great Wall Motor, Chery, thiab Zoo tagnrho.
Tsav los ntawm kev txawj ntse, kev lag luam kev koom tes tau nrawm heev. Pib los ntawm Tesla's FSD, kev txhim kho ntawm AI lub ntsiab tswj chips zoo li qhib Pandora lub thawv. Tsis ntev tom qab Journey 5, NVIDIA tau tso tawm sai sai Orin nti uas yuav yog ib lub nti. Lub zog suav tau nce mus rau 254TOPS. Hais txog kev khaws cia, Nvidia txawm saib ua ntej Atlan SoC nti nrog tib lub tshuab xam zauv txog li 1000TOPS rau pej xeem xyoo tas los. Tam sim no, NVIDIA khov kho nyob rau hauv txoj hauj lwm monopoly nyob rau hauv GPU kev ua lag luam ntawm automotive lub ntsiab tswj chips, tuav lub lag luam feem ntawm 70% tag nrho cov xyoo puag ncig.
Txawm hais tias kev nkag mus ntawm lub xov tooj ntawm tes loj Huawei hauv kev lag luam tsheb tau teeb tsa tsis muaj kev sib tw hauv kev lag luam automotive nti, nws paub zoo tias nyob rau hauv kev cuam tshuam ntawm lwm yam, Huawei muaj kev nplua nuj tsim hauv 7nm txheej txheem SoC, tab sis tsis tuaj yeem pab cov tuam txhab nti sab saum toj. kev lag luam nce qib.
Cov koom haum tshawb fawb tau kwv yees tias tus nqi ntawm AI nti tsheb kauj vab tau nce sai ntawm US $ 100 hauv 2019 txog US $ 1,000+ los ntawm 2025; Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, kev lag luam hauv tsheb AI nti yuav nce los ntawm US $ 900 lab hauv 2019 txog 91 xyoo 2025. Ib puas lab US dollars. Kev loj hlob sai ntawm kev lag luam xav tau thiab thev naus laus zis monopoly ntawm cov txheej txheem siab yuav ua rau lub neej yav tom ntej ntse kev txhim kho ntawm cov tuam txhab tsheb tseem nyuaj dua.
Zoo ib yam li qhov kev thov hauv AI chip lag luam, IGBT, yog ib qho tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom siv semiconductor (xws li chips, insulating substrates, terminals thiab lwm yam ntaub ntawv) nyob rau hauv lub tsheb tshiab lub zog nrog tus nqi piv txog li 8-10%, kuj muaj kev cuam tshuam loj heev rau kev loj hlob yav tom ntej ntawm kev lag luam tsheb. Txawm hais tias cov tuam txhab hauv tsev xws li BYD, Star Semiconductor, thiab Silan Microelectronics tau pib muab IGBTs rau cov tuam txhab tsheb hauv tsev, rau tam sim no, IGBT cov peev txheej tsim tawm ntawm cov tuam txhab tau hais los saum toj no tseem txwv los ntawm cov tuam txhab teev, ua rau nws nyuaj los npog cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tshiab hauv tsev. kev lag luam loj hlob.
Cov xov xwm zoo yog tias nyob rau hauv lub ntsej muag tom ntej ntawm SiC hloov IGBTs, Suav tuam txhab uas muag tsis nyob deb ntawm qhov teeb tsa, thiab nthuav dav SiC tsim thiab tsim muaj peev xwm raws li IGBT R&D peev xwm sai li sai tau yog xav kom pab cov tuam txhab tsheb thiab thev naus laus zis. Cov neeg tsim khoom tau txais ib qho ntug hauv theem tom ntej ntawm kev sib tw.
3. Yunyi Semiconductor, core intelligent manufacturing
Ntsib nrog qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov chips hauv kev lag luam tsheb, Yunyi tau cog lus los daws cov teeb meem ntawm cov khoom siv semiconductor rau cov neeg siv khoom hauv kev lag luam tsheb. Yog tias koj xav paub txog Yunyi Semiconductor accessories thiab ua kev nug, thov nyem qhov txuas:https://www.yunyi-china.net/semiconductor/.
Post lub sij hawm: Mar-25-2022